About Knowledge Overconfidence
According to experts, not only do most people suffer from Knowledge Overconfidence, but they may also not even be aware of it.
That is, most people think they are more knowledgeable than they really are, which in itself is an intriguing cognitive bias.
As individuals, we often fall into the trap of thinking we are smarter than we really are, particularly when we delve into subjects outside our areas of expertise.
As members of groups – whether that’s within families, friend circles, or workplaces – we still tend to think collectively that we are smarter than we really are, essentially falling prey to “groupthink” or herd mentality.
Put another way – in general, when it comes to knowledge, not only do most people have an inflated self-image, but this overconfidence can also have consequential impacts.
One often-cited example of proof illuminates this point in an experimental setting:
- Experts, such as psychologists or social scientists, pick a random group of people.
- A problem is presented to the group of people and they are asked to produce solutions.
- The people are split into groups, and these subsets brainstorm to come up with as many viable solutions as possible.
- The solutions from all the groups are compiled.
- All the people get to see all the solutions and they select the best solutions.
- Then the group of people is asked to assess how well it did in creating viable solutions to the problem—for example, rating its solutions on a scale of 1-to-10.
- Typically, the group of people scores its solutions high, say 8-out-of-10, reflecting a communal form of overconfidence.
Meanwhile, in a parallel experiment, people who are considered to be experts in the problem area are asked to create solutions to the same problem.
Then, when the experts’ solutions are compared against the solutions created by the random group, a revelation occurs: Not only do the experts have a broader range of solutions, but they also offer higher quality solutions.
These sorts of experiments are interpreted as hard evidence that people generally have knowledge overconfidence, highlighting an innate limitation in our self-assessment abilities.
I don’t believe everything I read, but when certain concepts like knowledge overconfidence catch my attention, I find myself pondering deeper—what implications does this have?
So, as I’ve been mulling over knowledge overconfidence, I started to wonder how pervasive this issue is in our daily lives and how it may subtly shape our behavior.
To the extent people suffer from knowledge overconfidence, they tend to:
- Be intolerant toward other people’s ideas, causing unnecessary conflicts.
- Listen poorly, missing opportunities to gain experience or collaborate.
- Stop seeking solutions too early, settling for mediocre outcomes.
- Bulldoze over other people, creating an unhealthy, competitive environment.
- Have a win-lose attitude in competitive situations, thereby failing to find potential win-win solutions.
- Underestimate the value of expert advice, leading to preventable mistakes or missed opportunities.
Understanding the various ways knowledge overconfidence manifests can be a first step towards mitigating its effects, both on a personal and collective level. So, the next time you think you’ve got all the answers, it might just be worth taking a step back and re-evaluating.
Now…for some counterarguments
- Experts Are Not Always Right: Experts can also fall victim to biases, overconfidence, or even corruption, leading them to provide less than optimal solutions.
- Impostor Syndrome: This is a psychological pattern where individuals doubt their skills, talents, or accomplishments and fear being exposed as a “fraud.” People with impostor syndrome often underestimate their knowledge and abilities, which is the opposite of knowledge overconfidence.
- User Innovation: In business and technology, innovations often come from end-users who are not “experts” in the traditional sense. Their deep understanding of their own needs can sometimes translate into solutions that experts might overlook.
While these points [and many other counterarguments] don’t completely refute the idea of knowledge overconfidence, they do add nuance to the discussion. They suggest that the relationship between knowledge and confidence is complex and can vary depending on a multitude of factors, including the individual, the task, and the social or cultural context.