When we make decisions, three distinct but interconnected concepts often shape our choices:
- intuition,
- good decisions, and
- [the elusive quest for] the best decision.
Each of these concepts influences how we think about opportunities, challenges, and uncertainties. Understanding how they interrelate is crucial for anyone looking to make thoughtful and effective decisions.
The Role of Intuition in Decision-Making
Intuition – often described as a gut feeling or an instinct – is a powerful force in decision-making. It is the result of accumulated experience, subconscious pattern recognition, and emotional insights. While it is intangible and occasionally irrational, intuition plays a critical role, especially when time is limited, data is scarce, and situations are dangerous.
For instance, experienced leaders often rely on intuition to make quick calls in high-pressure situations. Their decisions may appear spontaneous, but they are often grounded in years of expertise. However, intuition has its limits. It can be biased, shaped by past experiences that may not apply to the current context.
To harness intuition effectively, it must be complemented with data, analysis, and a clear understanding of the situation. Relying on intuition alone is like navigating with an unproven map. It will guide you, but it might not take you to the destination.
The Case for Good Decisions
Good decisions are those that align with available information, established goals, and reasonable expectations of success. Unlike intuition-driven choices, good decisions often emerge from a structured process: gathering data, weighing options, and anticipating outcomes. Ray Dalio’s PRINCIPLES promoted the value of believability-weighted decisions.
The merit of good decisions lies in their balance. They don’t demand perfection. They aim for practical, achievable outcomes. Considering the extent of uncertainties and the diminishing returns tied to extending data gathering, as a general rule, striving for “good enough” is a more effective strategy than chasing the best decision.
Consider a business leader choosing between two potential projects. One project offers steady, predictable returns, while the other promises higher rewards but with greater risks. A “good decision” might favour the safer project if the company’s stability is the priority, even if the riskier project could theoretically be the “best” choice under different conditions.
The Elusive Quest for the Best Decision
The “best decision” is more an ideal than a reality. It is the theoretically perfect choice – one that maximizes benefits, minimizes risks, and achieves all objectives. However, the pursuit of this ideal can be paralyzing.
The search for the best decision often leads to analysis paralysis, where the fear of making the wrong choice results in no decision at all. In dynamic environments, this delay can be more damaging than a less-than-perfect decision made in a timely manner.
Moreover, the definition of “best” is inherently subjective and context dependent. What seems optimal today might be rendered irrelevant tomorrow due to unforeseen changes in circumstances.
Why Good Decisions Outperform Best Decisions
In practice, having a range of good decisions to choose from is often more valuable than striving for the best decision.
Here’s why:
Flexibility: Good decisions allow for adaptability. In a world where change is constant, the need for adaptability often outweighs the need for perfection.
Efficiency: The effort and time spent trying to identify the best decision can often be redirected toward implementation and refinement.
Collaboration: In group settings, achieving consensus on a good option is typically easier than agreeing on what constitutes the best one.
By embracing a decision-making process that generates multiple viable options, we increase the likelihood of success and reduce the risks associated with over-commitment to a single best path.
Intuition, Good Decisions, and the Best Outcomes
When intuition and a good decision-making process work in harmony, the results can be transformative. Intuition can narrow down choices quickly, while believability-weighting generates actionable, good decisions. The best outcomes, in many cases, emerge not from pursuing perfection but from the constructive collaboration of these elements…and luck.
Summing up
The pursuit of the best decision can be seductive, but it often leads to diminishing returns. By valuing intuition and embracing the practicality of good decisions, we create a more sustainable and effective framework for decision-making.
Success isn’t about always finding the best answer. It is about making informed, thoughtful, and timely choices that keep us moving forward, learning, and growing. When we shift the focus from perfection to momentum of progress, we maximize decision-making value.